Release Date: Thursday, October 27, 2011
A WATT-Rennier Poultry Confidence Index survey poll (take the new survey) shows that 82% of respondents identified ‘grain prices’ as the top issue for the U.S. poultry industry for the remainder of 2011 and early 2012 (see chart). The regulatory environment, the general economy and bird health/diseases were essentially tied as the third-most important issue.
The dominance of grain prices is not a surprise given its importance on costs and profitability and sustained, historically-high grain prices. Protein supply and demand was selected by nearly 50% of the respondent as this factor heavily impacts profitability in a commodity-like market.
Although grain prices have been high for several years, this issue’s importance has jumped tremendously since May 2010 (see graph). Bird health/disease has also increased in importance over this time, but to a lesser extent. The export market and the general economy have substantially declined in importance over this same time period.
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The U.S. poultry industry has not only adopted smartphones for email, texting and web surfing but also is heavily engaged in social media websites, based on a survey of the WATT-Rennier Poultry Confidence Index panel.
Following are highlights of the survey conducted in August:
- Sixty-eight percent of PCI respondents use a smartphone, with Blackberry usage at 30% leading other smartphones.
- Thirty-two percent of respondents do not use a smartphone.
- Business email tops the smartphone usage purposes at 91%, while 77% of respondents use smartphones for business texting.
- Thirty-nine percent of respondents use smartphones to track pricing data, and 32% use smartphones to access social media.
- Leading social websites included LinkedIn (97%) and AnimalAgNet.com (91%).
My latest installment of the WATT/Rennier Poultry Confidence Index is available online. Expectations of high grain prices were counterbalanced by an improved general economy, stabilized fuel prices and potentially less supply due to cutbacks. Grain, however, remains the wild card that could easily swing these mildly-upward trends.
Read my latest Poultry Confidence Index in WATT’s Poultry USA. Here’s the summary:
Strong concerns over grain and input costs have begun to weaken confidence in the poultry industry. The potential for excess supply and lower prices played a smaller role. Expectations of reduced profits in the near future could lead to a short period of “belt tightening”
Summary from the 4Q Poultry Confidence Index: “It’s the grain prices! Fortunately, however, current conditions remains strong and we suspect that an improving economy and increasing demand may soften any blows from rising grain prices. Higher production and increased regulations may act as counterweights to hasten declines.” Click here to read the entire article in WATT PoultryUSA.
The summary from my recent Poultry Confidence Index that appears in the October edition of WATT’s PoultryUSA:
Confidence remained high, with even the low numbers only slightly below normative levels. After reaching the proverbial summit, our most likely expectations are for maintenance or decline. Luckily, it looks as if any decay will be gradual & mild rather than a steep cliff. The best news was a positive outlook for jobs & investments as this strong one-two punch could sustain the industry for the near future. The turkey industry bears some additional watching as the forecast was not quite as rosy.